Quantifying Uncertainty
Debusschere, B.J., Najm, H.N., Pebay, P.P., Knio, O.M., Ghanem, R.G., and Le Maitre, O.P.. "Numerical Challenges in the Use of Polynomial Chaos Representations for Stochastic Processes" SIAM J. Sci. Comput.. 26
(2).
2005.
pp. 698--719.
This paper gives an overview of the use of polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to represent stochastic processes in numerical simulations. Several methods are presented for performing arithmetic on, as well as for evaluating polynomial and nonpolynomial functions of variables represented by PC expansions. These methods include Taylor series, a newly developed integration method, as well as a sampling-based spectral projection method for nonpolynomial function evaluations. A detailed analysis of the accuracy of the PC representations, and of the different methods for nonpolynomial function evaluations, is performed. It is found that the integration method offers a robust and accurate approach for evaluating nonpolynomial functions, even when very high-order information is present in the PC expansions.
Reagan, M.T., Najm, H.N., Pebay, P.P., Knio, O.M., and Ghanem, R.G.. "Quantifying uncertainty in chemical systems modeling" International Journal of Chemical Kinetics. 37
(6).
JUN 2005.
pp. 368--382.
This study compares two techniques for uncertainty quantification in chemistry computations, one based on sensitivity analysis and error propagation, and the other on stochastic analysis using polynomial chaos techniques. The two constructions are studied in the context of H-2-O-2 ignition under supercritical-water conditions. They are compared in terms of their prediction of uncertainty in species concentrations and the sensitivity of selected species concentrations to given parameters. The formulation is extended to one-dimensional reacting-flow simulations. The computations are used to study sensitivities to both reaction rate pre-exponentials and enthalpies, and to examine how this information must be evaluated in light of known, inherent parametric uncertainties in simulation parameters. The results indicate that polynomial chaos methods provide similar first-order information to conventional sensitivity analysis, while preserving higher-order information that is needed for accurate uncertainty quantification and for assigning confidence intervals on sensitivity coefficients. These higher-order effects can be significant, as the analysis reveals substantial uncertainties in the sensitivity coefficients themselves. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.