Quantifying Uncertainty
The implementation of gPC involves the following seven steps. (I) Identify the sources of uncertainty in the model in question. (II) Choose independent random variables with appropriate PDFs to represent these sources of uncertainty (III) Construct a generalised Polynomial Basis. (IV) Use this basis to construct a gPC expansion of the sources of uncertainty - initial conditions, parameters etc. (V) Substitute the gPC expansions into the governing equations. (VI) Perform a Galerkin projection to transform the stochastic equation into a set of coupled deterministic equations. (VII) Solve the resulting system of equations with appropriate numerical methods.
Consider the general stochastic differential equation
where the random process is the solution,
is the source term and
is a linear
or nonlinear operator. The random parameter
represents uncertainty introduced by
initial or boundary conditions, rate parameters, system properties, etc. Using the Generalised
Polynomial chaos expansion we can write
as
Here we have restricted the infinite sum to a finite summation involving
expansion terms. The total number of terms depends on the number of dimensions
of
the random multivariate parameter
and the highest order
of the polynomials
set according
to the required accuracy
To obtain the best rate of convergence the polynomials are chosen with
the matching random distribution. Orthogonal polynomials can
also be constructed numerically to deal with arbitrary probability measure
[Xiu 2002 1.]. Once an appropriate basis has been chosen the truncated gPC
expansion is substituted into the governing equation to obtain
A Galerkin projection is then used to project the above equation onto the random space spanned by the
polynomial basis. This is performed by successively evaluating the inner-product of the above equation
with each basis element ,
Utilizing the orthogonality condition yields a set of coupled deterministic
equations. This system can then be solved using appropriate numerical methods. Once the gPC approximation of
the solution is obtained various statistical measures can be calculated. For instance, the mean
and variance
of the gPC approximation are
given by
Notice that the mean is simply the first term in the gPC expansion of the solution
and that the mean is absent from the
summation used to calculate the variance.
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